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Donald Trump has muscled ahead in Iowa, regaining his lead on the brink of the first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race.
Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.
“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.
Mainstream Republicans, faced with seeing governors Jeb Bush and Chris Christie stalling and the grim reality looming of a victory by a smash-mouth game show host or an ultra-conservative obstructionist, have gravitated toward Marco Rubio. The young-looking, first-term U.S. senator from Florida is now at 15 percent. Still, Trump gets more of their support.
“Donald Trump could win Iowa,” said Stuart Stevens, a Maryland-based GOP strategist who has worked on five presidential campaigns but is neutral this election cycle. “But he has little room for error. He is almost no one's second choice.”
MORE ON THE IOWA POLL
Rubio and Cruz, in contrast, are popular backup selections.
Another sign of a possible cliffhanger Monday night: Although just 9 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers haven't yet made a choice, they're part of the 45 percent who could be persuaded to change their minds in the final hours before the nation fires the starting gun on 2016 presidential voting at 7 p.m. in Iowa.
Trump excels with voters who have never participated in the caucuses. But the poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, detects no flood of fresh voters.
A victory for Trump would give him a huge head start toward the nomination, paving the way for him to achieve the unprecedented feat of winning both the first caucus voting in Iowa and the first primary in New Hampshire. A second-place finish for Cruz could make his path to the nomination difficult. He was expected to dominate in Iowa, where fellow religious conservatives make up a bigger bloc than in many other states.
The rest of the GOP field is struggling, the poll shows.
Ben Carson has dropped to 10 percent, remaining in double digits but with his lowest support since May.
Rand Paul remains at 5 percent.
Christie is still at 3 percent.
With 2 percent each: Bush, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum.
An irreverent New York real estate mogul and reality TV icon, Trump hasn’t been a front-runner in an Iowa Poll since August, when he had 23 percent support. Carson, a mild-mannered retired brain surgeon and inspirational book author, snatched the crown from Trump in October with 28 percent, but has since collapsed to fourth place.
Cruz, a Texas U.S. senator and anti-Washington crusader, streaked to the poll's zenith with 31 percent in December, but his 10-point edge over Trump eroded as his presidential rivals attacked him as a shape-shifter on issues, a faux Christian and an illegitimate American citizen. And on Jan. 19, Iowa’s powerful establishment Republican governor condemned him as a danger to the state’s agriculture economy.
After months of under-performing in a state where he is perceived as palatable to both establishment and anti-establishment voters, Rubio is up 3 percentage points since early January. But there's no indication of a surge: His support declined during the four days of polling.
The new Iowa Poll of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points